Chasing Success: What the Numbers Say

Chasing Success: What the Numbers Say About Final Four and NCAA Champions Since 2021

In the ever-changing landscape of college basketball, understanding what it takes to reach the Final Four, or even win a national championship, is a moving target. In an effort to identify patterns of success, I dove into the KenPom data of the Final Four teams and NCAA champions from the 2021 season through the 2025 season post COVID. The goal? To spot tendencies that might give programs an edge in March.

Before we get into the details, it’s important to note: these rankings are relative. Each season is its own ecosystem, with teams ranked in relation to one another that year. So, while raw numbers may differ from year to year, their rankings and efficiency levels give us a probable benchmark for comparison.

Final Four Trends: Seeds, Efficiency, and Outliers

One of the most basic indicators, team seeding, offered some interesting contrasts. In 2025, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. Every other season featured at least one higher-seeded outlier (defined here as a seed higher than No. 4). The 2023 tournament was the most chaotic, with two 5-seeds and a 9-seed reaching the Final Four. That year had no 1-seeds or 2-seeds represented at all.

So, what do these teams have in common besides winning games?

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

Most Final Four teams excelled on both ends of the floor, especially offensively. When we exclude the outlier seeds, every team was ranked in the top 10 for offensive efficiency with one exception: 2025 Houston (ranked 12th), though their raw offensive value of 123.4 would have cracked the top 10 in any other year analyzed.

Defensive efficiency had a broader range with a difference from top to bottom on the range of a 110. While top Final Four teams (non-outliers) typically ranked in the top 25 defensively, there were two notable exceptions:

• Duke (2022): #1 in offense but #49 in defense

• Alabama (2024): #2 in offense, but #111 in defense

Still, most non-outlier Final Four teams fell under a defensive ranking of 23 or better.

Tempo and Turnovers: Mixed Bag

When it came to pace of play and turnover percentage (TO%), there was no consistent pattern. Rankings varied dramatically:

• Pace: From 7th to 360th

• TO%: From 7th to 236th

It was not a clear cut trend, but some teams with higher defensive efficiencies tended to play at a slower pace. However, the 2021 Gonzaga team is an example that the best analytical teams can lose in a single game situation. Gonzaga had elite efficiency metrics across the board and played at one of the fastest tempos. Despite losing in the title game, they may have posted the most complete profile of any team analyzed, rivaled only by Auburn in 2025.

Establishing a Final Four Baseline

For teams looking to build a Final Four-worthy profile, here are the ranges (based on non-outlier seeds):

• Offensive Efficiency

  • Value: 130.2–117.5

  • Rank: 1–12

• Defensive Efficiency

  • Value: 88.0–103.0

  • Rank: 1–111 (only two teams over 25)

• Pace of Play

  • Value: 73.8–61.6

  • Rank: 7–360

• Turnover Percentage (TO%)

  • Value: 13.6–18.9

  • Rank: 7–236

If you're building a March-ready roster, aiming for a top 10 offense and top 25 defense appears to be the most reliable blueprint.

When we look at the outliers the question is did their play in the tournament hold to their season results or did they play at a different level during the tournament allowing for entrance into the Final Four? Something to dig into on another day.

What About the Champions?

While outliers sometimes crack the Final Four, winning it all is a different story. Of the champions from 2021 to 2025, only one was not a No. 1 seed: 2023 UConn, a 4-seed. Their numbers, however, were anything but underdog-like. UConn was the only 2023 Final Four team ranked in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is exactly the type of profile you would expect from a champion.

Across all five years, here’s the statistical range for national champions:

• Offensive Efficiency

  • Value: 129.2–119.2

  • Rank: 1–6

• Defensive Efficiency

  • Value: 90.9–92.9

  • Rank: 4–22

Of the champions, 2022 Kansas was the only team with an offensive efficiency under 120 at a value of 119.2. Notably, the 2021 Baylor team had the “worst” defensive rank at #22, but their defensive value (91.1) would have been top-5 in other years. It underscores the importance of understanding the raw scores and rankings on a varying scale yearly.

Tempo and Turnovers for Champions

Again, no definitive trend here:

• UConn 2024 played at the slowest pace (#350) but ranked 36th in TO%.

• Other champions ranged from the 60s to over 200 in pace.

The key takeaway? While tempo and TO% vary, elite efficiency on both ends is non-negotiable.

Final Thoughts: Is There a Playbook?

I'm not an expert, just a guy who loves numbers and wants to understand what drives success. And while March Madness will always have room for Cinderella stories and upsets, there are some recurring patterns among the most successful teams:

• Top-10 offense is essential

• Top-25 defense is close to a must

• Tempo doesn’t seem to matter as much, but playing clean, efficient basketball does

Finding these patterns doesn’t guarantee a trip to the Final Four. But they can provide a strategic north star for coaches, analysts, and fans alike trying to separate luck from design in the quest for college basketball glory.